clinton with a side of disaffection
by Ari Holtz
Published: March 19, 2008
Read Cameron Contois’ rebuttal to this article: “rebuttal to: clinton with a side of disaffection“
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What are they thinking? Really? What’s going through their heads? How do they think that Sen. Hillary Clinton can possibly win the race for the Democratic presidential nomination? No, I don’t mean her staffers. It’s their job to keep fighting for their boss as long as she wants them to. I don’t mean her surrogates and supporters within the government. They stay loyal for reasons of political alliance and gain. And, no, I don’t mean the candidate herself. She stays in the race in the hope that there will be some perfect storm of superdelegates, primary wins and court victories to vault her to the nomination, the presidency and her ultimate goal - the accrual of power. I refer to her supporters, those Americans who support Clinton over Sen. Barack Obama. What in the world do they think can happen to provide Clinton with the nomination?
Former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards once said that he would surely win an upcoming election unless caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy. This maxim holds true for Obama reaching the August Democratic Convention with a lead in both pledged delegates and the popular vote. Barring such a Spitzer-sized scandal striking Obama down like a lightning bolt from Zeus, Clinton just can’t feasibly catch up; this even takes into account a Pennsylvania victory and good showings in potential Michigan and Florida revotes.
Obama has a commanding lead in pledged delegates.
He has had all the momentum gaining superdelegates since Iowa.
He has a commanding lead in the popular vote.
All of this is unlikely to shift without Clinton defeating Obama in future contests by margins that are improbable and unlikely.
So, what’s with her supporters? What do they think will happen?
It’s clear why they want Clinton to win. They feel she is more experienced and better able to deal with the foreign policy and economic challenges that face the nation. They relish the idea of America’s first female president. They fondly remember the peace and prosperity of the 1990s. They believe that Obama is all rhetoric, beautiful flourishes of speech supported by little substance. All talk, no game.
Agree or disagree with those arguments, they are certainly legitimate points of view. Clinton is a serious, experienced individual, admirable in her intelligence, work ethic and thoughtfulness. Electing our first female president would be historic and something to make us all proud. And, yes, Obama’s powerful speeches and moving oratory do outshine his federal government resume.
Many votes, however, have been cast.
There are relevant facts on the ground.
She just can’t win.
Are her supporters simply in denial of these facts? Are they ignorant of mathematical realities? Are they sticking with their woman blindly?
Or are their wishes more nefarious in nature?
Is it possible that they, like Clinton, are hoping for disaster to befall Obama? Or do they desire chaos in Denver, a contested convention. Perhaps they want deals to be made in proverbial smoky rooms, delegates convinced to switch sides due to intimidation and arguments hedging on the importance of large state victories; then, Clinton, despite trailing in the popular vote, could win the nomination.
Can this outcome really be a Clinton supporter’s aspiration?
I pray not. And, if so, I hope they have made peace with what they are truly asking for.
Because if they get their wish, it won’t only be a Clinton nomination. It will also be a destroyed party - a loss to McCain in November and the disaffection of tens of thousands of Democrats who may not return to the fold for years, if ever.
Obama supporters, those same folks who proselytize for him and faint at his rallies, will not just magically become Clinton enthusiasts if she wrests away the nomination. They won’t trade in their Barack T-shirts just because Clinton is the Democrat on the ticket. They will be angry, perhaps enraged. They will see their candidate, their cause, their passion stomped on by an undemocratic, power-hungry politician. They will not vote for her. Some may shift to McCain, attracted to his authenticity and maverick nature in spite of his conservative policy stances. Most, though, simply won’t vote at all. They’ll be defeated and disillusioned. They’ll be turned off to politics, seeing it as an enterprise not of, by and for the people, but as a cynical, brutal contest for dominance and authority.
And they will be right; another generation will be lost. And Clinton will be to blame, along with her supporters, for allowing it to happen.
That can’t really be what they want. Can it?
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Read Cameron Contois’ rebuttal to this article: “rebuttal to: clinton with a side of disaffection“
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