election ‘08: the home stretch
by Ari Holtz
Published: October 9, 2008
As of this writing, there are 30 days left until the 2008 Presidential Election. What a long, strange, surreal trip it’s been. Obama’s win in Iowa, Clinton’s tears in New Hampshire. Huckabee’s brief bubble, Romney’s impotent fortune. Giuliani’s now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t campaign, John Edwards’ maybe-it’s-mine-maybe-it’s-not lovechild. Jeremiah Wright and John Hagee, Tony Rezko and Phil Gramm, Sarah Palin, Joe Biden, lipstick, pigs and bulldogs. Oh, my.
The preliminaries and side shows are over, however, as judgment day looms near. Predicting one day, let alone 30, in the universe of politics is a fool’s errand. Political junkies, though, are such fools. What follows is one observer’s view of what to look for from the campaigns of John McCain and Barack Obama between now and November 4th.
What will John McCain and his campaign big wigs, Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt, do in these last 30 days? It’s unlikely that the economy will vastly improve in that time, bailout/rescue plan not withstanding, and financial matters are clearly, as evidenced by the past few weeks, not in McCain’s wheelhouse. If Americans are predominantly thinking about the solvency of their banks, their ability to keep their jobs, fill their gas tanks, and not get foreclosed upon, Barack Obama is likely to be our nation’s next president.
So, then, the McCain campaign must change the topic of political discourse and the focus of voters. There are a couple of ways to do this. First is the stunt. We’ve already seen several of these. Picking Sarah Palin over the more conventional Tim Pawlenty or Mitt Romney was one. “Suspending” his campaign to “help solve” our financial crisis was another. The Palin stunt worked, then didn’t, and has now perhaps plateaued post-debate. The erratic behavior around the bailout did not work. Only one stunt, though, much like a hay-maker punch in boxing or Haily Mary pass in football, needs to work to create mass gains. McCain, then, likely will take at least one more shot at drastically shaking things up. It might not work, but how else to reverse a horrible trend in poll results/voter preference?
Well, how about intensely negative attacks? Swift boating works; ask John Kerry. Push polls suggesting illegitimate children work; ask McCain himself. Why not, then, throw every piece of mud, slime and horrendous association at Obama before you go down? It’s a desperate move (and it’s already started), but, again, as things stand, McCain is not going to win by running a conventionally flat campaign.
On Obama’s side of the fence, things are much different. His poll numbers are good, both nationally and in battleground states. Hard economic times naturally favor a Democrat, especially after eight years of Republican rule. An opponent widely identified with deregulation, as McCain is, also doesn’t hurt. Americans are angry as can be with Wall Street and corporate excess.
Consequently, Obama’s campaign will likely not see the need to do anything drastic, pull any stunts or make any grand gestures in search of a game-changer. The campaign must not, though, be lulled into complacency. Obama and his team must close this race strongly, not hope to simply coast toward victory.
Obama is no Dukakis, his campaign not akin to John Kerry’s or Al Gore’s. Obama will not take McCain’s coming attacks and/or flailing attempts at upending the dynamic of the race passively. He will play defense and strike back. He will do so, however, coolly and deliberately. At least he will try to. The Obama team realizes that it must be aggressive while not chipping away at the gains that Obama has made in being perceived as presidential and with gravitas.
In sum, McCain will attack and try something creative and out-of-the-box to mix things up and distract voters from the economy. Obama will try to be calm and composed in spite of a barrage of punches and unpredictability while defending himself and hitting back hard, yet with dignity. It will be quite a tightrope to walk.
Please note that these predictions do not apply in the case of a major terror attack or scandals involving prostitutes, Willie Horton or a boat named Monkey Business.
Viva the home stretch!
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October 12th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Well..McCains camp is slinging the mud (very nasty I might add) now…big time….Let me think here a couple of weeks ago he was telling us how good the economy was….tell me it ain’t so joe…..on TV ( FOX )the other night a GOP mouth is telling me we don’t need the auto companies anymore cause as everybody knows we ain’t a manufacturing based economy anymore (we lost it due to unfair trade NAFTA deals blessed by the Bush GOP)….and what do I hear from the McCain camp about how he’s gonna fix the economy…TAX CUTS…what good is a tax cut gonna do me? I work fer a auto company….WHAT GOOD IS A TAX CUT FER A MAN WITH NO JOB? …THANKS GOP!…Did U notice that I did not sling any MUD here?,,,,U only sling mud when can’t give a logical response to you opponents arguments….hey GOP you should stick your head in the sand with shame….. U guys sold the USA auto workers out…………..
October 12th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Oh ya..as a side…this is not about just the US automotive industry …its all manufacturing jobs….well…even as ” I (also) RAN ” noted in “AtNoLess Shrugged” wealth is created by the creative worker… When U destroy your manufacturing base..YOU HAVE NO REAL WEALTH BEING CREATED…what we have here is a bunch of flannel mouthed carpet baggers selling snake oil and worthless paper on the hill & Wall Street, You services guys are gonna loose your job too,….There are a lots of smart educated collage grads who make there lively hood from manufacturing… what do U think there gonna do about this mess?