conventions show dems trail GOP in field operations
by Jeremy P. Jacobs
Published: September 14, 2008
I returned last Friday from whirlwind trip to Denver and on to St. Paul for the conventions. And after seeing the culmination of both parties’ best efforts to introduce their candidates to their delegations and the nation, my mind kept returning to one thought: if this election comes down to field operations, the Republicans will beat the Democrats.
I know what you’re thinking, how does a convention reflect its party’s field operation? And in a strict sense it doesn’t. But, for reasons I will get into later, the GOP convention was far better organized than the Democrats’. And if you want to see Barack Obama win this election, that should worry you. Because as 2000 and 2004 showed, in a close election, field operations are critical to winning. And with the polls showing an even tighter race (some with John McCain now leading), the Democrats are going to have to rely on their field operation on Election Day.
There are, of course, some questions raised by this theory. First, yes, organizing a convention is not the same as organizing an effective GOTV campaign. But Obama’s campaign took the lead role in pulling together the Denver convention and they knew how much was riding on it (see: Invesco Field). I would assume they will approach their field operation with the same attitude.
Second, isn’t there an excitement gap in this election? Absolutely, and that was evident at the conventions. Denver was inundated with people (as was St. Paul, but a lot of those were protesters). More people are harder to organize, cut the DNC and Obama campaign some slack.
But more campaign volunteers are harder to organize as well. And from talking to sources in swing states, I know that already Obama’s critically-acclaimed field operation and volunteer base is growing to an unwieldy and, ultimately, difficult to manage size.
How was the GOP convention better organized than the Democrats convention? First: press credentials. The Democrats never had enough credentials and picking them up proved to be a nightmare. The lines were long and the check in was poorly broken down by different medias types. The Republicans provided credentials for every day up front and they were more accessibly organized for pick-up on the Sunday before the convention began.
Next: security. Getting in and out of the Pepsi Center in Denver was, well, disastrous. The Democrats forced everyone - press, delegates, congressmen and senators (!) - through a single door into a security tent. Then one passed through metal detectors and into the Pepsi Center where, from a press standpoint, it was practically impossible to find filing centers.
Approximate amount of time to get into the Democratic convention before primetime began: 25 to 30 minutes.
There were two ways into the Xcel Energy Center for the GOP convention. If you rode to the center on one of the delegate shuttles (credential required), you had a block to walk then you were greeted by at least ten security stations. No lines. Entering through the front of the Xcel Energy Center was a little more crowded, but the line still moved quickly, mainly because most of the delegates went in through the other entrance.
Approximate amount of time to get into the Republican convention before primetime began: 5 minutes.
Several political analysts, including NBC’s Chuck Todd, have said that the one intangible that no one can accurately take into account going into Election Day is field operation. Most have lauded Obama’s field operation for its success in the caucus states. Indeed, in many ways his field operation in Iowa launched his candidacy.
But Republicans have proven they have a stellar field operation. Democrats thought their GOTV plan locked up Ohio in 2004 only to be outdone by the GOP. With this election becoming as close as 2004, Democrats will need to equal, if not better, the GOP’s field efforts and, if the conventions are any indication, they still have some ground to make up.
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September 15th, 2008 at 10:36 am
I have a funny feeling that even with an incredible cadidate (Barack not Biden) the Democrats are going to find some way to lose the election. Thanks for the insite Jeremy.
September 15th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
It would have been absurd to say it 2 weeks ago, but I think the democrats are going to lose again. I don’t know how they can possibly do it considering the oppositions record, but they’ll figure out a way I’m sure.
September 16th, 2008 at 10:09 am
If there’s a way for the Dems to mess it up, they’ll find a way. I’m starting to get worried.
September 17th, 2008 at 1:13 am
Enough of the Democrats. What are cubs chances of going all the way?
September 17th, 2008 at 7:42 am
It’s the Cub’s year, I can feel it! (although I say that every year). GO CUBS!
September 17th, 2008 at 11:40 am
The cubs will run out of pitching long before they reach the World Series. Sorry Cam.