what if she did?

by Joshua Lustig

Published: May 21, 2008

I don’t think it’s going to happen and neither does she.

But let’s just posit for a second that Senator Hillary Clinton did actually claim the Democratic party’s nomination for president over Senator Barack Obama. Would there be a backlash? Would Obama bow out gracefully? Maybe most important, could she win?

After watching resounding victories in Kentucky and West Virginia, that crucial last question might have answered itself. If the dramatic end to the primary proved anything, Hillary would certainly be a powerful force in November.

The Democratic party has grown to monumental proportions over the course of this primary. Millions of new voters have registered and overall turnout numbers boggle even the most seasoned political vets. This extended primary has generated incredible amounts of media attention for both candidates while leaving John McCain largely invisible to the public. It is undeniable that the long primary season has been a tremendous help to the Democrats as a whole.

But there is an argument that while it has generated enthusiasm, it has also threatened to tear the party apart. In such a divisive atmosphere, could general election voters be counted upon to vote again, this time for the candidate they didn’t originally want?

The question has been answered in part by Mr. Obama himself.

“Tonight, many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided - that Sen. Clinton’s supporters will not support me, and that my supporters will not support her,” he said during a speech last Tuesday in Raleigh, NC. “I’m here tonight to tell you that I don’t believe it.”

In an attempt to debunk much of the Clinton rancor, he argues that these polarized and bitter voters can be won over. Clinton’s supporters will eventually appreciate the dynamism of Obama’s leadership. Also Clinton, in a gracious moment of defeat that any politician would approve, will emphatically endorse Obama for the presidency.

The important question here then is what would happen if the party bosses really turned the tables on Obama? If Clinton pulled it off and superdelegates overruled the will of their constituencies, could a bitter Obama be counted on to do the same for her?

That’s a tough concept to ponder. Obama has stated many times that he is not running to further his already blossoming political career, but rather that in this one moment, he felt the country needed him as president. While skeptical of the purity of his motives, I suspend my disbelief and agree that if he loses, Obama does not want to ever run again.

If that truly is the case, would the master orator and understandably bitter leader of the Democratic youth movement simply walk away? Could the charismatic star not endorse and thus hand the presidency to the Republicans?

He wouldn’t. After the dust had cleared he would embrace her with the same intensity he has given his own campaign. Obama simply wouldn’t have another moral option. This is the key to the Clinton campaign’s overall strategy. This is the unlikely but undeniable fact her campaign is clinging to.

She has proven herself as a resilient and dedicated politician, capable of drawing huge amounts of supporters. If she could only get the endorsement of party leaders, then her latest slogan is right and she would be the stronger candidate.

The funny thing about this scenario is that no one thinks it will ever happen. Given her numbers so far Clinton simply cannot win the primary. The campaign knows it just as well as the pundits they decry.

The irony of it getting to this point, however, is that Clinton proved that she certainly could win the presidency. And if in some stroke of divine luck Obama can’t seal the deal in November, that’s exactly the message Hillary Clinton will be delivering to both the nation and her party alike in 2012.

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