the chicago way
by Michael Gannon
Published: May 9, 2008
Whatever damage the 2006 election cycle and the (at the time) grueling, seemingly unending Republican primary may have done to my enthusiasm for politics, the Democrat primary has undone. Since last February, the slugfest death match between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has been like some sick reality show on MTV: sad and pathetic, yet utterly enjoyable and addictive. I know that it must end, but I’m not sure I want it to. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
Well, after Tuesday’s (predictable) results in Indiana and North Carolina, the pundits and the Democrat Party elders began their (even more predictable) proclamations that Hillary is finished, that she should drop out now and that perhaps she soon will.
Here’s the dirty little secret: she won’t.
She won’t because the Clintons work best when they are up against the ropes. She won’t because her attack machine has only begun to warm up, and Obama is no longer the messianic savior that he once was. She won’t because she has a plausible case to make that Barack Obama draws his support from the hardcore Democrat base (working-class blacks and college-educated liberals), while she plays strong with the white working-class voters once called “Reagan Democrats” - who hold the keys to victory in swing states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She won’t because she still has the aces up her sleeve of the Florida and Michigan delegates, a fight that won’t be resolved until the rules committee meets before the convention in August. She won’t because this is her last and only shot at the presidency.
Hillary Clinton has gone all in. For her, it’s now win or die, and the Clintons, as The Nation’s John Nichols pointed out on Tuesday, are masters of political survival. Sure, in all likelihood, Obama will win the nomination, but Clinton will take this thing to the end if she has even a glimmer of hope. She has no reason not to.
If Obama wants to win this thing and avoid a convention battle, he needs to take off the kid gloves and knock Clinton out while he still can. That means cranking up the heat, going on the offensive and crushing the New York senator in the remaining contests, and by a big enough margin to undermine her arguments for staying in, swinging the uncommitted superdelegates his way. As much as he alleges to disdain the rules of Washington, he’s going to have to beat Clinton at her own game. As he is from Chicago, he may want to look to this for advice.
Pass the popcorn.
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