the “Everybody Loves Obama” myth
by Cameron Contois
Published: April 29, 2008
Barack Obama has inspired many to get involved in the political process. His speeches, like his historic one on race, are opening up conversations on topics that would otherwise not be touched by politicians. His speeches have even, at times, inspired the Clinton supporter writing this article. Lifelong Republican Susan Eisenhower supports Obama , and she’s not the only Republican jumping ship.
No one can deny that Obama has charisma that will attract some independent voters. However, there is another candidate in this race who is an expert at picking up independents. His name is John McCain.
Senator McCain has been harshly criticized by ultra-right conservatives like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter for not being conservative enough. There are rumors he once considered becoming a Democrat. He’s a national war hero. The Bush smear campaign trashed him and his family back in 2000, and now he’s able to appear in opposition to Bush even as he plans to continue Bush’s disastrous policies. In other words, he will appeal to moderates.
While many in Obama’s camp chose to ignore the polls in favor of blind hope, the fact remains that the blue-collar “Reagan Democrats” and the socially conservative Catholic church-going crowd will vote for McCain if Clinton is no longer in the race. Even if Obama does overcome the elitist label, these voters will still perceive him as too far left. And Obama will lose the election.
Politico reporters John F. Harris and Jim Vandihei speculate that if Clinton weren’t in an inter-party fight, she would “[r]ip off the duct tape and here is what [she] would say: Obama has serious problems with Jewish voters (goodbye Florida), working-class whites (goodbye Ohio) and Hispanics (goodbye, New Mexico).”
Many Obama supporters live and die by the myth that Obama will capture all independents and a significant amount of moderate Republicans and that is why he deserves the nomination. However, the numbers don’t support this claim.
In Pennsylvania, Obama won only 30 percent of the Catholic vote. He only got 29 percent of the blue-collar vote. No matter how one spins this, these are not numbers that point to a November win. Karl Rove, in his “Dear Senator Obama…” essay, states that “[d]efections like this elect Republicans. Even liberal commentators who adore you warn you can’t win with a McGovern coalition of college students and white-wine sippers from the party’s left wing.” I hate to quote Rove but, right or wrong, the guy understands elections.
Some in the Obama camp like to paint the picture that every Obama supporter thinks Clinton’s a “monster” they would never vote for. Unfortunately, the numbers just don’t support these claims either. According to Julia Bard at Newsweek, a quarter of all Clinton supporters will vote for McCain if she loses the nomination. On the other hand, only ten percent of Obama supporters would do the same if he loses.
Obama supporters are more willing to vote for Clinton because Obama appeals to the liberal base of the Democratic Party. These voters will end up voting for the Democratic candidate no matter who he or she ends up being. Clinton supporters, on the other hand, are the kind of voters for whom McCain would be a perfect fit in a Clinton void.
This begs the question to be asked: if Clinton wins the nomination, will she be able to win over Obama’s base? Perhaps not everyone. But the poll cited above shows she would pick up more of Obama’s base than he would of hers. Furthermore, she holds the upper hand by having the consistent, church-going voters in her pocket. These voters are guaranteed to show up at the polls. On the other hand, Obama’s base of youth and newly registered voters are fickle.
If the day ever comes where Clinton is no longer in the running, John McCain is perched and ready to swoop in and pick up all those moderate votes in swing states like Michigan and Ohio. For McCain, they will be easy prey.
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(6)
April 29th, 2008 at 9:59 am
if Obama loses to McCain the only one to blame will be Hillary Clinton for not respectfully steping aside like Romney, and Huckabee did long ago. If this stupidity doesn’t get settled by the convention that will only give Obama 2 months to unite the party and try and appeal to the rest of these Clinton supporters.
This primary is over. The only hope Hillary has of winning is with super delegates. Every day she sticks around increases the odds of four more years of Republicans, 100 more years of War, and an increasing hatred for this country around the world.
If Hillary Clinton steals this election using super delegates you will see an uproar like nothing you saw from Gore v Bush. If you honestly think that’s what is best for the part or for the country you need your head examined.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Haha… a 100 more years of War.
Well placed.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:16 am
funny how people cite polls as reliable, concrete evidence when it helps their candidate but write them off as mere speculation when it hurts their candidate. you might as well argue that craving mexican food today means you will be craving it for the next six months. good reasoning…
April 29th, 2008 at 10:27 am
My favorite is when I’m reading an article in The Economist that argues Hillary doesn’t have a chance, and then at the bottom of the article there’s a YouPoll that shows America significantly supports Hillary over Barack and McCain.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I don’t think Obama would make a good President. I think Hillary would make a much better President. I don’t trust Obama. I don’t believe you could be a member of a church for 20 years and not know anything about the pastor. I would not vote for Obama. I will vote for John McCain if Hillary does not get the denomination. I want a democrat in office but not Obama.
April 29th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
That looks almost like a planted statement. Anyone who thinks the Clintons, are more trust worthy than Obama clearly isn’t paying attention.
I seriously suggest you try listening to what Obama has to say rather than what the these silly little non-issues that the media has created. I wouldn’t trust Hillary to run a lemonade stand.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Schuldt is right. A little vicious but right. If Clinton Superdelegate-slaps the Obama base, I can’t see how She musters the support necessary to beat a champion of the moderates in the general election.
But don’t get me wrong Cameron. You make a strong case for the lady. You’re hardcore.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
lol Thanks jonchun!!!!!!!
April 30th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
On an unrelated note - the Bangles are the greatest musical group in the history of the world.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
“Members of Parliment, can we not agree that Oasis is the greatest British band since The Beatles!”
April 30th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Nay, Oasis takes a number far behind, not only The Bangles, but Zapp, Duke Ellington and the Sex Pistols. Numerous scientific studies have been conducted over the years. The evidence is pretty conclusive.