settle down, democrats

by Ari Holtz

Published: April 26, 2008

Conventional wisdom says that Democrats are in trouble. Pennsylvania did nothing for them. It didn’t get Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race, nor did it give her a victory large enough to make any serious gains on Sen. Barack Obama. The party faithful on Wednesday morning remained stuck where they were on Tuesday morning, stuck where they were in March. No combination of Reverend Wright controversies and Bosnia flaps, “bitter” comments and old MoveOn.org quotes could make a difference. So, for Clinton and Obama, the slog continues. For Democrats in general, however, it’s more than just a slog. It’s emotional trauma, right?

Might those feelings be darker than they need to be? Are loyal Democrats in St. Louis and San Antonio, Portland and Detroit, Philadelphia and Ohio being a tad bit hysterical in their postures of doom and gloom?

Perhaps.

Democratic fears largely revolve around the party tearing itself to pieces in the course of picking its nominee. Obama supporters, specifically, fear that, despite their candidate’s essentially insurmountable lead in delegates, he will have the nomination wrestled away from him through some undemocratic process involving dirty Clintonian tricks.

The latter issue is incredibly unlikely. Any trickery that Clinton might attempt, whether it involves numbers games or other deviousness (Michigan counts but Florida doesn’t; pledged delegates aren’t actually pledged; big states matter more than small states, no, actually, delegates matter most, actually, no, popular vote matters most, etc., ad infinitum) is dependent on superdelegates. They will need to be swayed to support any formulation that she creates on which to base her claim on the nomination. And they won’t be swayed.

Superdelegates – party activists and elected officials – are self-serving. If they themselves will be on the ticket in 2008, they want to win. Obama, the magnet for Independent voters and crossover Republicans, represents a better chance for this than does the polarizing Clinton. If superdelegates aren’t on the ballot themselves, they nonetheless fear alienating African-Americans (the Democrats’ most reliable voting block) and young voters (the party’s future) who have been so drawn to Obama. Siding with Clinton on technicalities and electoral alchemy could destroy the party for a generation. Superdelegates, who make their living off of the party, do not want this.

The other issue – the Clinton and Obama camps warring so violently and endlessly that they create a fatal wound in the party – is also unlikely. Yes, right now Obama supporters think that Clinton is no better than Karl Rove. And, sure, Clinton voters are more than a little perturbed that Obama has emerged from obscurity to just about win the nomination that they thought was all but guaranteed to go to their candidate. There is anger on both sides, more than enough bitterness and rage to go around.

Eventually, however, the trickle of superdelegates will become a river flowing to one candidate or the other. Voters will no longer be able to remain in denial about the outcome of the nominating process. At that point, acceptance of the inevitable will set in. Clintonites may not love Obama, but he will become increasingly attractive when the reality of four more Republican dominated years sets in.

America is not a happy country. The war in Iraq, the abomination that was the response to Katrina, inaction on climate change, and surreal gas prices all occurred under the watchful eye of a Republican president. These disasters of commission and omission will get pinned to McCain, fairly or unfairly, maverick reputation notwithstanding. When faced with this alternative to their holding their noses and supporting their second choice, Democratic voters will unite.

The panic is understandable. Democrats are a skittish bunch after the 2000 election and the past 8 years. They have had electoral and political disaster befall them again and again and they look for it around every corner. Right now, though, this nominating process, well, it very likely isn’t the disaster they so fear.

What is? Who knows? Democrats will likely have some suggestions, though.

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