endgame?
by Tom Carey
Published: March 11, 2008
As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama prepare for the coming six weeks of trench warfare that will culminate when Pennsylvania Democrats vote on April 22, it’s smart to take a look at the vital statistics of the race thus far. To date, the junior senator from Illinois leads in total delegates (1589 to 1470), total states won (30 to 15), and the popular vote of all primaries and caucuses (13,025,003 to 12,421,316). Despite these quantitative victories, Obama has failed to shut the door on Hillary Clinton: first in New Hampshire, then on Super Tuesday and finally this past week in Texas and Ohio. With all the talk of superdelegates, delegate counts, possible revotes in Florida and Michigan, it leaves us wondering: How and when will this thing really end?
Most analysts agree that it is unlikely that either Clinton or Obama will reach the required 2,025 delegates to clinch the nomination. Given that, it’s also true that for Clinton to overtake Obama’s delegate lead she would have to win upwards of 70% of all remaining primaries and caucuses. In short, Obama will win the delegate count, but most likely not by a decisive margin. Throw in the increasingly mixed allegiances of superdelegates and the possibility of Clinton seating delegates from Florida and Michigan and it gets pretty messy. All these factors point to a race that will go beyond the last primaries in June and will stretch to the convention in August.
If this is the case, Democrats will face an extremely difficult choice. Hillary Clinton will say that she has won key states that a Democrat must win to be elected president (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, California). But not so fast, Senator. Obama has won twice as many states as you, won more delegates than you overall, and has had more Democrats across the country vote for him than you.
Her likely re-hashed response: Senator Obama has not won the crucial states of the Democratic establishment. He may say that he wants “new electoral math,” but can he really win 270 electoral votes to make it to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue while ignoring decades-old Democratic strongholds?
Obama’s response: Yes.
Here’s the bottom line: if there is a “new electoral map” that produces the Democratic nominee by this August - so be it. The will of Democratic voters should not be subverted by a nominating process decided by party elders (superdelegates), irrespective of the wishes of the majority of the voting public. Senator Obama has campaigned in such a fashion that attracts the traditional Democratic base plus Republicans and independents desperate for something new. In that sense, Barack Obama’s message represents a movement, something that is most closely analogous to Bobby Kennedy in ‘68. Democrats have already recognized the opportunity that Barack Obama represents, and seized it. The convention in Denver ought to be the culmination of a nomination process governed by simple mathematics; not an opportunity for political bosses to play God.
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