obama’s numbers

by Boris Glebov

Published: February 11, 2008

Mr. Obama has repeatedly tried to paint himself as someone who believes in a united nation, in rational dialogue and in viewing the other half of the country as partners, not political adversaries. Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton has been quite aggressive in her attacks on her opponents, including her own party ally Mr. Obama. Naturally, I wondered, what are the effects of these different styles of conduct?

For the answer, I decided to mine exit poll data, courtesy of MSNBC.com. In all, I had data available for twenty one states. Granted, that’s not even all the primaries we’ve had. Still, this is a very large chunk of data, and so I feel that at least wide trends should carry validity.

First, the three obvious and media-touted trends. Female voters support Ms. Clinton, 49 to 44 percent. Mr. Obama has the African-American vote (77 to 20 percent), while Ms. Clinton has the Hispanic vote (60 to 37 percent). However, while the racial delineation of statistics is important, we all know that it’s the economy, stupid. So, how do people’s wallets vote? Mr. Obama has been narrowly winning middle and upper class votes (49 to 43 percent among those earning more than $50,000 a year), while just as narrowly losing the lower class votes (44 to 49 percent). Realistically, given statistical uncertainty, this is a fairly even split.

The racial divide is misleading. Mr. Obama has successfully broken through the racial divide with decisive victories in predominantly white states, winning Kansas, Alaska and Idaho with over 70 percent of the vote.

Second, the kicker - independent vote. Mr. Obama wins this category by an impressive margin - 52 to 36 percent, carrying it in 17 states. Those identifying themselves as independents comprised nearly 20 percent of the vote and, it can be argued, represent people with political views more ambiguous than the stark Democrat/Republican division. This can include people of all walks of political thought, and Mr. Obama’s win here is not just important, it is heart-warming. (I would have liked to look at numbers among self-identified conservatives, but those were too few.)

It is important because the most likely Republican nominee, Mr. McCain, is known for his popularity with the independent voters.The fact that that he is still in the race could be attributed to them. The eventual Democratic candidate must have command of the independent vote in order to be competitive with Mr. McCain in the presidential race.

It is further important because it is not just your platform, it is what you can do with it. If Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton’s approaches to politics play out as these crude numbers suggest, then Mrs. Clinton will have a far harder time trying to implement her policies than Mr. Obama, even though their ideas are not that far apart. With all the talk about his charisma, motivational power and the transcendent quality of his campaign, it is easy to oversee that this is a leader able govern in harmony. Government’s purpose is to serve the people, and this purpose is greatly impeded by political infighting. Mr. Obama’s success is heart-warming precisely because of his demonstrated ability to create a government for everyone in this nation, not just the Democrats or just the Republicans.

P.S. Here is another trend that I have observed in the exit poll data, with great consistency. Ms. Clinton wins 55 to 38 percent (15 to 4 states) among people whose highest education level is high school. Among people with post-graduate degrees, Mr. Obama is the clear victor, winning 54 to 40 percent (again 15 to 4 states). This is not due to youth of high schoolers, however. Mr. Obama decisively wins among younger voters - 59 to 35 percent.

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