obama camp shows inexperience
by Jeremy P. Jacobs
Published: January 11, 2008
Manchester, N.H. - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the Democratic primary here Tuesday is shocking for several reasons, but one stands out most of all: how the Obama campaign got completely worked by the Clinton camp in the expectations game.
You know the expectations game. It is how campaigns attempt to frame election results so their candidate finishes higher than what they (and, therefore, the press) expect. This creates a strong narrative that the press and readers typically eat up.
The expectations game is why former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s third place finish here on Tuesday is newsworthy. Even though he only earned 11 percent of the vote, Huckabee is a socially conservative, southern governor in a New England state. The fact that he bested former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who until recently was the national frontrunner for the nomination, is news.
Let’s take a look at how Huckabee played the expectations game last night…
“Tonight we’re going to come out here with continued momentum,” he said. “Tonight, you’ve given us so much more than we could have imagined just a few days or weeks ago. And over the last few days, we’ve seen that momentum build and the excitement at our rallies and the enthusiasm of our people and the size of the crowds. And we just sensed that we were going to do better than a lot of people thought that this old unknown Southern boy could possibly do up here in New England.”
Textbook.
The battle between Obama and Clinton here showed that the Clinton camp is in a different league than Obama’s.
When poll after poll showed that Clinton was going to lose, the Clinton camp quickly changed course and set expectations very low. “Shaken Clinton Camp Prepares for Trench Warfare After N.H.,” one headline on the Huffington Post read. The Clinton camp said it is planning on a national campaign, focusing on the big states, such as New York and California, that vote on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.
There were multiple stories quoting unnamed campaign members saying there was significant unrest amongst the campaign staff and changes were to come. Communications director Howard Wolfson, Senior Strategist Mark Penn, Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle and Media Consultant Mandy Grunwald were all mentioned as being on thin ice.
Former President Bill Clinton’s temper rose in several events, chastising the media for being more critical of his wife than of Obama.
Clinton herself showed emotion. Many papers reported that she was on the verge of tears answering a question about how she goes on, day after day, with the outlook looking bleak. She didn’t cry, but it was a rare emotional outpouring from her.
“I see what’s happening. We have to reverse it,” she said. “Some people think elections are a game, they think it’s like who’s up and who’s down. It’s about our country… you know some of us put ourselves out there and do this… against some pretty difficult odds, and we do it, each one of us, because we care about our country.”
The message from the Clinton camp was clear: We may be down but we are not out. No matter how badly we do in here on Tuesday (and it looks bad), we are going go keep fighting.
Oh, and let’s not forget: this is nothing new for the Clinton machine. It was their masterful control of expectations in 1992 that made Little-known Bill Clinton’s second place finish here the primary’s big story.
The Obama campaign, in contrast, was on cloud nine. Lines were stretching around buildings to get into his events. The polls looked good and the candidate was gallivanting around the state, talking about how well he expected to do come voting day.
For whatever reason, inexperience perhaps, the Obama campaign failed to do anything to dampen expectations. As a result, Obama received increasingly flattering media coverage leading up to the primary and expectations were set almost impossibly high. Talking to another reporter here as the results trickled in and the race was tight (around a 2,000 vote difference), he said there is no way this will be a solid win for Obama, even if he does pull it out. Expectations were set too high.
“Something is stirring,” was a common refrain at Obama’s campaign stops here and again on election night. He was referring to the voters coming to see him as a candidate that can change Washington.
He’s right; something is stirring. But after Tuesday night, the only thing stirring in the Obama camp is trouble.
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